Climate and Security

The relationship between climate change and security is complex and multi-faceted, with climate change often acting as a "threat multiplier" that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and creates new challenges. [1] The main aspects of this relationship include: 

1. Resource Scarcity and Competition: 

• Water Scarcity: Climate change alters precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent and intense droughts in some regions and floods in others. This impacts freshwater availability for drinking, agriculture, and industry, increasing competition and potential for conflict, especially in transboundary water basins. [2] [3]
• Food Insecurity: Changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events (like droughts, floods, and heatwaves) disrupt agricultural production and fisheries, leading to reduced crop yields, higher food prices, and increased hunger. This can trigger social unrest and instability, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.[4]
• Land Degradation: Desertification, soil erosion, and sea-level rise reduce arable land and habitable areas, forcing populations to migrate and increasing pressure on remaining resources. [5]

2. Displacement and Migration:

• Forced Migration: Climate-related disasters (e.g., severe storms, floods, droughts) and long-term environmental degradation can render areas uninhabitable or unsustainable, forcing large populations to migrate internally or across borders. [6]
• Tensions in Receiving Areas: Rapid and large-scale displacement can strain resources and services in host communities, potentially leading to social, economic, and political tensions, and even conflict, especially if not managed effectively. [7]

3. State Fragility and Instability:

• Exacerbated Vulnerabilities: Climate change disproportionately affects already fragile states with weak governance structures, limited resources, and existing social tensions. It can undermine governments' ability to provide basic services and respond to crises, eroding legitimacy and increasing the risk of state failure. [8]
• Increased Social Unrest: Climate impacts can exacerbate existing inequalities, poverty, and grievances, leading to protests, civil disorder, and potentially escalating to violence or armed conflict.
• Rise of Extremist Groups: In some vulnerable regions, environmental degradation and livelihood insecurity can create conditions that allow extremist organizations to gain influence by exploiting grievances, offering alternative livelihoods, or controlling access to scarce resources.[9]

4. Impacts on Military and Defense:

• Operational Challenges: Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changing climate conditions can damage military infrastructure, disrupt supply chains, and make outdoor training and operations more difficult and costly. [10]
• Increased Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Missions: Militaries are increasingly called upon to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in response to climate-related events, diverting resources from traditional defense roles.[11]
• Geopolitical Shifts: Melting ice in the Arctic, for example, is opening new trade routes and access to resources, leading to increased geopolitical competition and potential for tension among states. [12]

5. Indirect Pathways and Threat Multipliers:

• Climate change rarely acts as a sole cause of conflict but rather interacts with and intensifies existing social, economic, and political factors. It can amplify vulnerabilities, deepen inequalities, and strain adaptive capacities, making societies more susceptible to instability and violence. [13] [14]
• The relationship is often complex, with cascading effects where climate impacts in one sector or region can trigger unforeseen consequences in others. [15]

Addressing the climate-security nexus requires a comprehensive approach that includes not only mitigating greenhouse gas emissions but also enhancing resilience, adapting to climate impacts, and integrating climate considerations into peacebuilding, conflict prevention, and security policies. [16]

Sources:

[1] How Climate Change Threatens National Security | CFR Education,  Council on Foreign Relations https://education.cfr.org/learn/reading/national-security-climate-change 

[2] How can climate change affect natural disasters? | U.S. Geological Survey - USGS.gov https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-can-climate-change-affect-natural-disasters   

[3] Climate Change and Water Conflicts – the Global River Hotspots - Vision of Humanity https://www.visionofhumanity.org/climate-change-and-water-conflicts-the-global-river-hotspots/#:~:text=Emerging%20as%20a%20pressing%20ecological,tensions%20and%20the%20potential%20for   

[4] Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System | Home - USDA https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/priorities/climate-solutions/climate-change-global-food-security-and-us-food-system 

[5] Soil degradation could force migration of hundreds of millions of people - Wodne Sprawy  https://wodnesprawy.pl/en/soil-degradation-could-force-migration-of-hundreds-of-millions-of-people/#:~:text=Soil%20degradation%20could%20force%20migration,Calendar 

[6] Climate change and disaster displacement | UNHCR US https://www.unhcr.org/us/what-we-do/build-better-futures/environment-disasters-and-climate-change/climate-change-and   

[7] A global displacement crisis as the world abandons aid - Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) https://www.nrc.no/feature/2025/a-global-displacement-crisis-as-the-world-abandons-aid   

[8] Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States in - IMF eLibrary  https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/066/2023/001/article-A001-en.xml 

[9] People, Countries Impacted by Climate Change Also Vulnerable to Terrorist Recruitment, Violence, Speakers Tell Security Council in Open Debate | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases, United Nations https://press.un.org/en/2021/sc14728.doc.htm 

[10] Why Climate Change Is a National Security Risk - State of the Planet - Columbia University https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/10/11/why-climate-change-is-a-national-security-risk/ 

[11] Climate Change Resiliency a High DOD Priority, Deputy Defense Secretary Says, U.S. Department of Defence https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2630037/climate-change-resiliency-a-high-dod-priority-deputy-defense-secretary-says/ 

[12] The Future Battlefield is Melting: An Argument for Why the U.S. Must Adopt a More Proactive Arctic Strategy, The Arctic Institute https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-battlefield-melting-argument-us-must-adopt-more-proactive-arctic-strategy/   

[13] Five ways the climate crisis impacts human security | United Nations https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/human-security 

[14] Conflict and Climate | UNFCCC  https://unfccc.int/news/conflict-and-climate 

[15] Fifth National Climate Assessment 17. Climate Effects on US International Interests,  U.S. Global Change Research Program (.gov) https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/17/ 

[16] What is climate security and why is it important? - UNDP Climate Promise, United Nations Development Programme https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-climate-security-and-why-it-important

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