The Effects of Climate Change on Security

(Les effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité)

Final report of the STO Research Task Group SAS-182

Language(s): English / français

Description: “This report analyses how climate change rapidly transforms NATO’s strategic environment. Four case studies are presented: the northwestern parts of Africa, the Arctic, the east flank (Dnipro watershed), and military mitigation efforts. These chapters demonstrate that the answers to climate change are hard to come by – partly because the interactions of climate change and security are complex, uncertain, and of stupendous scale and scope, and partly because consequences and effects depend on the context. This report offers three core insights. One, climate change is a systemic problem that impacts all the items on the list of an ever-growing security agenda. Second, to properly understand the security consequences of climate change, in-depth knowledge of context-specific dynamics is required, whether the context is regional, national, or local. Three, the practices of climate security are at the intersection of science and policy. It must be acknowledged that the complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities are both scientific and political in nature. To enact and enable NATO’s climate security agenda, this report makes two key recommendations. First, the Climate Change and Security Action Plan must be modified so as to transform knowledge into action. Second, NATO must build a new sciencepolicy model that institutionalises the co-production of knowledge between scientists, defence professionals, and policymakers.”

Author(s) / Editor(s): Multiple

Publisher(s): NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO)

Publication Date: January 2026

Number of Pages: 160

Publication Web Page (URL): 
https://www.sto.nato.int/document/the-effects-of-climate-change-on-security/

Related Organisation(s): CCASCOE: NATO Change and Security Centre of Excellence